Market Watch - Home Sales Hold Steady in September as New Listings Rise

Home sales held near August levels in September, edging slightly higher rather than declining as they typically do at this point in the year. At the same time, new listings rose much more sharply than usual, giving buyers greater choice and shifting market conditions further in their favour. 

Many would-be homebuyers want to take advantage of today’s more affordable housing market, but they need to be confident that their employment situation will remain solid and inflation will not put pressure on borrowing costs over the long term.

Ontario - Home Sales Hold Steady in September as New Listings Rise 

Toronto, October 6, 2026 – Homebuyers were in a holding pattern in September, as uncertainty surrounding the economy, inflation and borrowing costs weighed on Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales.

GTA REALTORS® reported 5,040 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in September 2026 – down nine% compared to September 2025. New listings entered into the MLS® System amounted to 16,500 – down by 14.4% year-over-year.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, September 2026 home sales and new listings were down month-over-month compared to August 2026.

“Housing is one of the biggest issues on voters’ minds, and the upcoming municipal election will help shape housing policy across the GTA and Simcoe County for the next four years. The decisions our next mayors and councillors make on affordability, housing supply and the costs associated with buying a home can also influence buyer demand and confidence in the market,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Daniel Steinfeld.

The MLS® Home Price Index (MLS® HPI) Composite benchmark was down by 4.7% year-over-year in September 2026. The average selling price, at $1,006,409, was down by 5.1%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, both the MLS® HPI Composite and average selling price edged lower month-over-month compared to August 2026.

“We know there is substantial pent-up demand in the GTA, with many households fully intending on purchasing a home in the months ahead. These would-be homebuyers want to take advantage of today’s more affordable housing market, but they need to be confident that their employment situation will remain solid and inflation will not put pressure on borrowing costs over the long term,” said TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer.

“Governments must make homeownership more attainable by reducing barriers such as Toronto’s Municipal Land Transfer Tax and opposing its expansion across the GTA and Simcoe County,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele. “With trade uncertainty and tariffs continuing to affect Canada’s economy, maintaining a strong housing sector is critical to supporting consumer confidence, economic growth, and the significant spin-off spending generated by every MLS® transaction,” continued DiMichele.

Ottawa Home Sales Hold Steady in September as New Listings Rise 

Ottawa - October 5, 2026 - Ottawa home sales held near August levels in September, edging slightly higher rather than declining as they typically do at this point in the year. At the same time, new listings rose much more sharply than usual, giving buyers greater choice and shifting market conditions further in their favour. 

Last month, weaker absorption was identified as one of the key signals to watch heading into the fall. That signal became more pronounced in September as the gap widened between the number of homes coming onto the market and the number selling. Whether that shift persists remains to be seen. New listings have declined in both October and November in each of the past 10 years, so the coming months will show whether September’s influx of listings recedes with the usual seasonal pattern or keeps inventory elevated for longer. 

The price picture was mixed. Average and median sale prices remained close to August and only slightly below last year, indicating that overall transactions did not change dramatically. The MLS® Home Price Index declined more noticeably, however, pointing to underlying price softness once changes in the mix of homes sold are taken into account.  

“Ottawa’s suburban areas remained the main engine of activity in the housing market, accounting for nearly three-quarters of all September sales and continuing to shape the citywide result,” said OREB President Tami Eades. “At the same time, the downtown and rural areas continue to see more volatility with a widening gap between the number of homes coming onto the market and the number selling.” 

Residential Market Activity, A total of 1,010 homes were sold through the MLS® System in September, down 6.6% from September 2025. Sales edged up 0.8% from August, when 1,002 transactions were recorded. Only one of the previous 10 August-to-September periods produced an increase in sales, while the median change was a decline of 5.9%. 

Looking across July through September provides a clearer view of the summer market. Sales typically ease gradually over these three months. In seven of the previous 10 years, activity declined in both August and September. This year followed a less even path, with an approximately 24% decline from July to August followed by September’s small increase.  

The three-month total was 3,336 sales, down 8.2% from the same period in 2025 and the third-lowest summer total since 2016. Taken together, the results point to a softer and unusually uneven summer, with September stabilizing after August rather than signaling a broader rebound. 

Sales were lower than a year earlier across all three major property types. Single-family sales declined 4.6% to 535 transactions, while townhouse sales fell 3.5% to 329. The largest decline remained in apartments, where sales fell 24.8% to 121 transactions. Apartments accounted for more than half of the net year-over-year decrease in citywide sales. 

Year to date, 10,288 homes have sold in Ottawa, down 6.9% from the same period in 2025. Total year-to-date dollar volume was approximately $7.2 billion, down 7.3%. 

Prices and Market Balance: The average residential sale price was $685,640 in September, down 1.0% from a year earlier and nearly unchanged from August. The median sale price was $625,000, down 0.8% year over year and slightly higher than in August. Despite the volatility in sales activity, the average price remained within a range of less than 1% from July through September. 

The MLS® Home Price Index recorded a composite benchmark price of $623,500, down 0.3% from September 2025 and 2.2% from August. Average and median prices can be influenced by the types of homes sold in a given month. For example, a larger share of higher-priced sales or detached homes as opposed to condos can support the average even when home values are generally softening. The HPI reduces this effect by tracking the estimated price of a representative home with consistent characteristics. Its larger decline therefore points to more underlying price softness than the average and median figures alone suggest. 

September’s 2.2% monthly HPI decrease was the largest August-to-September decline in Ottawa’s series, which dates to 2005. Even after adjusting for normal seasonal patterns, the benchmark declined 1.5%, also the largest September decrease in the series. The result warrants attention, particularly alongside weaker absorption, but one month alone does not establish a sustained price trend. 

There were 2,927 new listings in September, up 3.0% from a year earlier and 38.1% from August. Some increase is normal as the fall market begins, but the median August-to-September increase over the previous 10 years was 12.9%. Looking across July through September, 7,576 homes were newly listed, the highest total for those three months since 2016. Over the same period, sales recorded their third-lowest total. 

Active listings reached 4,813, up 7.9% from September 2025 and 7.1% from August. This was the second-highest September level since 2016. The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell from 47.3% in August to 34.5% in September, meaning roughly one home sold for every three new listings. Months of inventory rose from 4.5 to 4.8. Among September results over the past decade, this year recorded the lowest sales-to-new-listings ratio and highest level of months of inventory. 

For buyers, the increase in availability may provide greater choice, more time to make decisions, and additional negotiating room. Affordability and borrowing costs, however, continue to constrain demand.  

Other transaction measures also pointed to more subdued conditions. Homes sold for an average of 97.5% of their listing price, compared with 98.1% last September, while the median time on market increased from 22 to 27 days. 

Single-family homes recorded 4.4 months of inventory and a benchmark price of $705,100, nearly unchanged from a year earlier but down 3.0% from August. Townhouses recorded 4.0 months of inventory and a benchmark price of $546,500, down 2.2% year over year but essentially unchanged from August. 

Apartments remained the softest of the three major property types. Months of inventory rose from 6.3 to 7.3, while the sales-to-new-listings ratio fell from 43.0% to 27.0%. The apartment benchmark price was $380,800, down 6.1% from a year earlier and 3.1% from August. Although the average apartment sale price increased 0.9% year over year, the benchmark movement suggests that changes in the mix of apartment sales supported the average. Taken together, the September measures indicate that apartment supply continues to build relative to sales. 

Regional Market Comparison : Ottawa’s three suburban submarkets continued to be the engine of the market, accounting for 734 sales, or 72.7% of citywide activity. Their combined sales total was down 8.0% from 798 in September 2025, with each of the three submarkets recording fewer sales than a year earlier. 

Ottawa Suburb West had the firmest absorption among the seven submarkets, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 40.7% and 3.7 months of inventory. Ottawa Suburb East recorded 4.3 months of inventory, while Ottawa Suburb South recorded 4.4. 

More supply-sensitive conditions were evident in Ottawa Centre and the rural markets. Ottawa Centre recorded a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 27.6% and 6.8 months of inventory. Months of inventory also reached 6.5 in Ottawa Rural South, 6.3 in Ottawa Rural East and 5.8 in Ottawa Rural West. 

Price movements varied considerably across the rural areas. With monthly sales ranging from 40 to 88 transactions, large percentage changes in these markets should be interpreted cautiously. 

Looking Ahead : Through the summer, one of the central questions for Ottawa’s market was not simply how many homes were available, but how quickly that supply was being absorbed. Absorption weakened through August and September. The sales-to-new-listings ratio fell from 52.4% in July to 47.3% in August and 34.5% in September, while months of inventory rose from 3.5 to 4.5 and then 4.8. September sales were nearly unchanged from August, but new listings increased 38.1%, meaning the latest shift came primarily from substantially more supply competing for a similar number of sales. 

How long that imbalance lasts will matter. Listings normally decline as the market moves through October and November, so some improvement in absorption would indicate that September’s surge was partly seasonal. If the sales-to-new-listings ratio remains near its current level, months of inventory remains elevated, and the HPI continues to decline, the evidence of a broader price adjustment would become stronger.  

Apartments remain the clearest pressure point. CMHC also expects Ottawa’s rental market to soften as a large construction pipeline is completed. Most of that new supply is purpose-built rental housing rather than resale condominiums, so it should not be treated as a direct addition to resale inventory. It may nevertheless influence demand as renters and prospective buyers weigh a wider range of housing options. 

External forecasts generally point to limited near-term price growth and a gradual recovery. TD Economics forecasts Ontario’s existing-home prices to average 2.6% lower in 2026, followed by growth of only 0.6% in 2027, while RBC forecasts Canada’s benchmark price index to decline 2.3% in 2026 before edging up 0.8% in 2027.  CMHC’s Ottawa outlook similarly expects sales to stabilize but says slower demand growth and greater supply limiting price increases. 

Some buyers may also be shifting from resale homes to new construction. GOHBA reported 464 new-home sales in Ottawa in August, up 9.7% from July and 55.2% from a year earlier, while year-to-date sales were 50.4% higher. This acceleration coincides with expanded HST relief for qualifying new homes, which may be improving the relative appeal of new construction and drawing some demand away from the resale market. The figures do not establish that the rebate caused the increase, but the contrast between stronger new-home sales and weakening resale absorption is another trend worth monitoring.   

These forecasts cover different geographic areas and use different price measures, so their figures are not directly comparable with Ottawa’s monthly results. Their common direction is nevertheless consistent with the local data: the market is offering buyers more choice, while current supply and demand conditions provide limited support for rapid growth. October and November will provide an important test of whether absorption begins to recover as fall listings ease or whether the softer conditions persist into the end of the year.

Alberta - Detached home sales improve in September

Calgary,  Oct. 1, 2026 – September sales totalled 1,650 units, similar to August and nearly four% lower than in September 2025. While September sales typically pull back compared with August, stronger detached home sales helped prevent the typical seasonal pullback.

At the same time, new listings also rose from August, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to fall to 49%, leaving inventory levels relatively stable compared with August. Stable sales and inventory levels in September prevented any change in the months of supply compared with August, which remained at just under four months. 

While the overall market is showing higher supply levels compared with sales activity, conditions vary significantly by property type. Detached properties remain in balanced territory, and the monthly boost in new listings supported gains in sales in September. Meanwhile, higher supply levels for apartment and row homes are contributing to buyer market conditions, as demand is spread across more alternatives in the rental and new home markets. 

“The variation in market conditions between property types is related to where the supply was added. The construction boom over the past three years was mostly driven by gains in higher-density sectors, significantly increasing the supply of apartment and row-style homes,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®). “Meanwhile, detached homes did not see the same boost in construction, preventing broad-based supply growth. Thanks to a stronger job market and slower but positive net migration, housing demand has remained strong enough to absorb some of the supply, but not enough to offset the high-density supply added to the market, resulting in a more significant impact on prices for higher-density homes.” 

As the market moves through the fall, it is not unusual to see some unadjusted monthly declines in prices. However, many of these adjustments were seasonal, as seasonally adjusted figures show that prices in September are relatively stable compared with August. The unadjusted residential benchmark price was $566,700, nearly one% lower than last year. Most of the price adjustments have occurred in higher-density row and apartment-style units, which have reported year-over-year declines of eight% and six% in September. Meanwhile, detached prices are one% lower than last year, mostly due to declines in the North East, East and North districts.

Detached - Sales in September reached 896 units, up from August and more than four% higher than last year. The improvement in sales was partly due to a boost in new listings in September compared with August, giving consumers more options. With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 52% and a months of supply at just over three months, conditions remained relatively balanced. However, conditions have varied across the city, with less than three months of supply in the North West, West and South districts, and nearly six months of supply in the North East district. While the overall market is relatively balanced, the unadjusted benchmark price was 1% lower than last year. The decline was primarily driven by steep pullbacks in the oversupplied North East district. Meanwhile, prices were higher than last year in both the City Centre and West districts.   

Semi-Detached - The year-over-year gain in sales was not enough to offset earlier declines, as year-to-date sales have declined by two% for a total of 1,678 sales. The decline in sales matched year-to-date declines in new listings, but a monthly boost in September listings caused the sales-to-new-listings ratio to dip to 45%, contributing to monthly inventory gains and pushing months of supply to nearly four months. While this is a shift from the tighter conditions reported in this sector throughout most of 2026, it is too early to say whether this will continue into the final quarter. While unadjusted prices did trend down in September, much of the decline was in line with typical seasonal behaviour. The unadjusted September benchmark price was $685,200, comparable to levels reported last year at this time.

Row - Sales in September eased compared with August, while new listings rose, causing the sales-to-new-listings ratio to drop to 45%. This also contributed to higher inventory levels compared with both last year and August, resulting in the months of supply rising above four months for the first time since the beginning of the year. Additional competition from new units has weighed on resale activity, as the price spread between new and resale homes remains relatively narrow. The additional supply choice for buyers has also weighed on row prices, but not to the same extent as in the apartment sector. As of September, the unadjusted benchmark price was $412,400, down nearly six% from last year. While prices have declined across all districts, the steepest declines, at more than 11%, have occurred in the North East and East districts, while the smallest declines have occurred in the North West, at two%. 

Apartment Condominium - Apartment sales improved from August, slowing the year-over-year pace of decline to 14%. New listings also rose over August, with 343 sales and 717 new listings, leaving the sales-to-new-listings ratio at 48%. The monthly gains in sales supported modest reductions in inventory levels and prevented any further increases in the months of supply, which remained just above five months. The excess supply of apartment-style units has weighed on prices throughout most of the year. As of September, the unadjusted benchmark price fell to $291,400, down more than 1% compared with August and more than eight% lower than last September. While some of the monthly decline is seasonal, seasonally adjusted prices continued to decline.  

British Columbia - Slow but Steady Sales Recovery Continues in the BC Market

Vancouver,  September 14, 2026 -  The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that 5,653 residential unit sales were recorded in Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems in August 2026, down 4.7% from August 2025. The average MLS® residential price in BC in August 2026 was down 1% at $924,826 compared to $925,917 in August 2025.

Total MLS® residential sales dollar volume was $5.2 billion, down 4.8% from the same time the previous year. BC MLS® unit sales were 25.4% lower than the ten-year average for the month of August.

“Provincial home sales remain well below long-term averages but have been steadily improving throughout the year,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “We expect a gradual recovery in sales to continue, though new tariffs and a recent spike in long-term interest rates add a layer of risk to that scenario.”

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume is down 6.5% to $43.26 billion, compared with the same period in 2025. Residential unit sales are down 5.5% year-over-year at 46,069 units, while the average MLS® residential price is down 1% to $939,028.

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