Market Watch - A Good Start For The Year 2021

Shifting housing needs during the pandemic and historically low-interest rates have been key drivers of demand in the Canadian market over the last six months. People who managed to enter the market a few years ago, and have seen their home values increase, are now looking to move up in the market to accommodate their changing needs.

Ontario - A Strong Start for 2021

Toronto, 12 February 2021 -- January 2021 home sales amounted to 6,928 – up by more than 50% compared to January 2020. This strong start to 2021 included sales growth across all major segments including condominium apartments, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding GTA regions.

New listings were also up on a year-over-year basis in January, but not by the same annual rate as sales. This means market conditions tightened compared to January 2020, resulting in the continuation of double-digit growth in the MLS® Home Price Index and the average selling price.

The average selling price for January 2021 was up by 15.5% to $967,885 year-over-year. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was up by 11.9% over the same period.

Price growth was driven by the low-rise market segments, while the average condo apartment price was down in Toronto. However, if we continue to see condo sales growth outstrip condo listings growth, we could start to see renewed growth in condo prices later this year.

Ottawa -- Pent-up Buyer Demand Drives January’s Resale Market

Ottawa, February 3, 2021 -- Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 964 residential properties in January through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® System, compared with 778 in January 2020, an increase of 24%. January’s sales included 674 in the residential-property class, up 21% from a year ago, and 290 in the condominium-property category, an increase of 31% from January 2020. The five-year average for total unit sales in January is 786.

“Pent-up Buyer demand fueled the exceptional number of sales that took place in January even as the mid-month lockdown further restricted supply. Earlier in the month, listing activity increased, likely driven by those Sellers waiting until after the holiday season to put their properties on the market. However, once the Stay-at-Home Order was announced, Sellers pulled back (rightfully so) and the number of properties entering the market declined,” states Ottawa Real Estate Board President Debra Wright.

“Even though inventory is up from last month, it is still down substantially from last year at this time with 43% fewer properties on the market. This inventory shortage coupled with strong demand triggered a brisk pace to the market. We would have certainly seen higher sales numbers if there were more properties available because the demand is definitely there.”

January’s average sale price for a condominium-class property was $380,336, an increase of 13% from last year, while the average sale price of a residential-class property was $677,197, an increase of 31% from a year ago. Compared to December, the average price for residential-class properties has increased by 12%, and the average price for condominium-class units is 7% higher.*

“I would like to caution those looking at the increase in average prices this month and believing that property values are accelerating at an extreme pace. In January, there was considerable movement in the upper end of the market, which caused a bit of an anomalous outcome in average price percentages. For example, there were 63 sales in the $1M+ price range, while last year at this time, there were only 16 transactions. Sustained price movements are better reflected during the mid to latter part of the year, where trends begin to emerge, and comparisons can be drawn,” advises Wright.

“This leads me into my next point – market activity has curtailed, there is no question about that, with January resale numbers lower than what we saw in December. But the effects of this second lockdown will not be entirely measurable until the coming months, dependent on when the mandated Stay-at-Home Order is retracted. If the lockdown is extended, that could affect the market in the longer term; however, as we saw last year, the market was resilient throughout and is being driven by the needs of Buyers and Sellers,” Wright concludes.

In addition to residential sales, OREB Members assisted clients with renting 333 properties in January 2021 compared with 243 in January 2020.

Alberta - January Sales increased 47.1% compared to January Last Year

Edmonton, February 2, 2021 -- Total residential unit sales in the Greater Edmonton Area (GEA)* real estate market for January 2021 increased 47.1% compared to January 2020 and increased 5.9% from December 2020. The number of new residential listings is up year over year, increasing 8% from January 2020. New residential listings are up month over month, increasing 87.9% from December 2020. Overall inventory in the GEA fell 17% from January of last year and increased 5% from December 2020.

For the month of January, single-family home unit sales are up 50.1% from January 2020 and up 8.5% from December 2020 at 737. Condo unit sales increased 43.8% from January 2020 and increased 2.7% from December 2020.

All residential average prices are up to $364,040, a 3.7% increase from January 2020, and up 0.4% from December 2020. Single-family homes sold for an average of $427,677, a 3.2% year-over-year increase from January 2020, and a 0.4% decrease from December 2020. Condominiums sold for an average of $216,757, a 6.1% increase year-over-year, and prices are down 0.5% compared to December 2020. Duplex prices increased 1.6% from January 2020, selling at $344,400, which was a 4% decrease from December 2020.

“The Edmonton market in January saw an increase in year-over-year residential unit sales as well as month-to-month sales,” says REALTORS® Association of Edmonton Chair Tom Shearer. “There have also been more sales of single-family homes, condos and duplexes compared to January of last year, while we’ve seen an increase in month over month sales for single-family homes and condos and a decrease in duplex rowhouse sales. We are encouraged to see this kind of activity at the start of the year, which is typically a slower time in the real estate market, and especially in the current economic climate.”

Single-family homes averaged 59 days on the market, a 14-day decrease from January of last year. Condos averaged 73 days on the market, a 10-day decrease year-over-year, while duplexes averaged 70 days on market, a 15-day decrease compared to January 2020. Overall, all residential listings averaged 65 days on market, decreasing by 14 days year-over-year and increasing by 7 days compared to the previous month.

British Colombia - Metro Vancouver Market Highlights

Vancouver, 10 February 2021 -- In the first month of 2021, Metro Vancouver’s* housing market continued the pattern set at the end of last year with home sale activity outpacing the supply of homes listed for sale.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 2,389 in January 2021, a 52.1% increase from the 1,571 sales recorded in January 2020, and a 22.8% decrease from the 3,093 homes sold in December 2020.

Last month’s sales were 36.4% above the 10-year January sales average.

"With home sale activity well above our January average, the supply of homes for sale isn’t able to keep pace. This is causing increased competition amongst home buyers and upward pressure on prices," said Colette Gerber, REBGV Chair.

There were 4,480 detached, attached, and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in January 2021. This represents a 15.7% increase compared to the 3,872 homes listed in January 2020 and an 86% increase compared to December 2020 when 2,409 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 8,306, a 3.6% decrease compared to January 2020 (8,617) and a 2.7% decrease compared to December 2020 (8,538).

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for January 2021 is 28.8%. By property type, the ratio is 26.3% for detached homes, 37.6% for townhomes, and 27.8% for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12% for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20% over several months.

“Shifting housing needs during the pandemic and historically low-interest rates have been key drivers of demand in our market over the last six months,” Gerber said. “People who managed to enter the market a few years ago, and have seen their home values increase, are now looking to move up in the market to accommodate their changing needs.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,056,600. This represents a 5.5% increase compared to January 2020 and a 0.9% increase compared to December 2020.

Sales of detached homes in January 2021 reached 740, a 68.6% increase from the 439 detached sales recorded in January 2020. The benchmark price of a detached home is $1,576,800. This represents a 10.8% increase from January 2020 and a 1.4% increase compared to December 2020.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,195 in January 2021, a 46.8% increase compared to the 814 sales in January 2020. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $680,800. This represents a 2.2% increase from January 2020 and a 0.6% increase compared to December 2020.

Attached home sales in January 2021 totalled 454, a 42.8% increase compared to the 318 sales in January 2020. The benchmark price of an attached home is $815,800. This represents a 4.3% increase from January 2020 and a 0.2% increase compared to December 2020.